pizzaman
5th July 2002, 03:54.25 PM
This is a theory about how to spot a well meant longshot with the toteboard.
Those close to the horse, trainer or owner, believe their horse is going to run a big race for some reason - could be anything. And their belief will be reflected with their own money. After the horses have been saddled and go out on the track, then these people will go and bet their horse. This will normally happen with 9 or 8 or 7 minutes to post. (It takes the connections 1-3 minutes to get to the betting windows from the paddock.)
We have been running AT THE RACES for months. We have seen a pattern, which showed up again today, many times in the past. The pattern is this: a horse is heavily bet, in relationship to his odds, in those one to three minutes after horses leave the paddock. Then, betting on this horse reverts to pre-paddock trends. These horses have won or run big races much more often then their final odds indicated their chances were.
This trend is not obvious to the general public, because the horse's overall odds are not changing dramatically. This trend can be obvious using the ODDS screen in AT THE RACES, because it shows how each horse is being bet in relationship to the other horses each minute - the "by-the-minute" odds.
What happened today is that the seven horse, Parado, in the seventh race at Philadelphia Park was 12:1 morning line, was 11:1 as they left the paddock and went off at 12:1. Listening to the race call, the announcer, Keith Jones, referred to Parado as a "longshot" as he drew away. However, what the betting public did not know, but AT THE RACES users could have known, was that Parado was bet as the second favorite at both 8 and 7 minute marks, with by-the-minute odds of about 2:1 or 5:2.
We call this hidden bet factor theory the "Burkholder/Cabnet", after its inventors. Let us know if you find this pattern to hold up, or any others that you may come up with.
A screen shot of the ODDS screen of AT THE RACES for this race is attached.
Those close to the horse, trainer or owner, believe their horse is going to run a big race for some reason - could be anything. And their belief will be reflected with their own money. After the horses have been saddled and go out on the track, then these people will go and bet their horse. This will normally happen with 9 or 8 or 7 minutes to post. (It takes the connections 1-3 minutes to get to the betting windows from the paddock.)
We have been running AT THE RACES for months. We have seen a pattern, which showed up again today, many times in the past. The pattern is this: a horse is heavily bet, in relationship to his odds, in those one to three minutes after horses leave the paddock. Then, betting on this horse reverts to pre-paddock trends. These horses have won or run big races much more often then their final odds indicated their chances were.
This trend is not obvious to the general public, because the horse's overall odds are not changing dramatically. This trend can be obvious using the ODDS screen in AT THE RACES, because it shows how each horse is being bet in relationship to the other horses each minute - the "by-the-minute" odds.
What happened today is that the seven horse, Parado, in the seventh race at Philadelphia Park was 12:1 morning line, was 11:1 as they left the paddock and went off at 12:1. Listening to the race call, the announcer, Keith Jones, referred to Parado as a "longshot" as he drew away. However, what the betting public did not know, but AT THE RACES users could have known, was that Parado was bet as the second favorite at both 8 and 7 minute marks, with by-the-minute odds of about 2:1 or 5:2.
We call this hidden bet factor theory the "Burkholder/Cabnet", after its inventors. Let us know if you find this pattern to hold up, or any others that you may come up with.
A screen shot of the ODDS screen of AT THE RACES for this race is attached.