Even runners

[Ron]

I've noticed that horses displaying even running line scores in the velocity screen like
3-3-3 or 2-2-2 or minor variations of them (332-232-223--etc.) seem to win or hit the board often enough to be respected and considered in ones wagering strategy.

I use PL-5 to work with these selections but think that any PL mode has possibilities.

I'm wondering if anyone has any query data on these selections with regards to w/p/s percentages and roi?
Perhaps broken down to distance and surface, conditions etc?


The score Im thinking of that may have some potential is:

A/P = 3
E/P = 3
S/P =3

The next would be:

A/P = 2
E/P = 2
S/P = 2


Ron

[Carl]

Here's a broad kick at it Ron, Pl1.

I did three queries, one for rEP, rAP, rSP 2 or 3, one for all "2"s and one for all "3"s. My spiffy new place and show calculator started fighting with me in this db, wanting a value for "nWIN", donno what that was about. So I am presently confined to win only in this db.

Here's some simple numbers.



ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report
rEP, rSP, rAP all 2 or 3. Pl1.

Total Bets 16857
Total Amount Bet 33714.00
Wins 2914
Pct. 17.29%
Amount Won 27371.30
Profit/Loss -6342.70
Pct Profit Loss -18.81%
Avg. Payout 9.39



ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report

rEP2, rAP2, rSP2. Pl1.
Total Bets 3174
Total Amount Bet 6348.00
Wins 622
Pct. 19.60%
Amount Won 4819.60
Profit/Loss -1528.40
Pct Profit Loss -24.08%
Avg. Payout 7.75


ALL_MSA Misc Query ROI Report

rEP3, rSP3, rAP3. Pl1.
Total Bets 2963
Total Amount Bet 5926.00
Wins 425
Pct. 14.34%
Amount Won 4834.60
Profit/Loss -1091.40
Pct Profit Loss -18.42%
Avg. Payout 11.38

later,
Carl

[hurrikane]

Carl,
I believe the roi calc uses the nWIN from the IMPC table. In ALL_MSA the column is called nWIN$. Just be sure to include the nWIN from IMPC which you use the nPLA and nSHO anyway. If that doesn't fix it let me know.

[Ron]

Carl;

Thanks for running your figures on the 333's and 222's.


I think they may do better (especially the 333's) in PL5.

I feel that with just a qualifier or two added, and a dash of common sense handicapping I can get that win % on the 333's to top 20% .

I'll know more after 100 bets or so.

Thanks again;

Ron

[MikeDee]

Ron ran a few tracks in my PL5 db same way as Carl all fast dirt ap, ep, sp 2 OR 3


Fac nWin nBet Win% aMut aBet aWon aP/L ROI
PRM 735 4817 15% $11.79 $9,634 $8,662 ($972) -10%
MNR 676 4623 15% $11.66 $9,246 $7,884 ($1,362) -15%
FE 935 5568 17% $10.10 $11,136 $9,442 ($1,694) -15%
PHA 2072 12773 16% $10.34 $25,546 $21,423 ($4,123) -16%
BM 922 5480 17% $9.88 $10,960 $9,105 ($1,855) -17%
HAW 1304 8644 15% $10.91 $17,288 $14,231 ($3,057) -18%
GLD 625 3852 16% $10.13 $7,704 $6,331 ($1,373) -18%
PEN 879 5167 17% $9.63 $10,334 $8,465 ($1,869) -18%
DEL 1273 7844 16% $10.06 $15,688 $12,805 ($2,883) -18%
CT 330 2201 15% $10.74 $4,402 $3,545 ($857) -19%
PIM 737 4236 17% $9.20 $8,472 $6,782 ($1,690) -20%
EVD 888 6127 14% $10.93 $12,254 $9,703 ($2,551) -21%
HIA 391 2431 16% $8.75 $4,862 $3,421 ($1,441) -30%

hope this helps

[Ron]

MikeDee;

Thanks for the cross reference samplings using PL 5 on all those different tracks.

With the exception of a couple of aberrant tracks, those even runners look pretty consistent in both average mutual and roi no matter where they are played.

I still think that with a few added filters and qualifiers, it can be a winning spot play.



I did catch a decent one at Woodbine on Sunday. Race #2. $39.60


Ron

[George]

Ron.......nice hit at WO! Agree with you that those are very stable win% and avg mutuel across tracks. Should be a way to filter and boost win/roi. Will look at it further. Thanks for the heads up on it.

[Ron]

George;

If I had the access db setup , I'd start by filtering out the 2yr olds races, turf races,races over 9F. and races under 5F.

I'd probably run each distance seperate to see if some are more productive then others.

I'd work the 333 figures first, then the mixed 2's and 3's next.

Depending on what those results show, I'd modify them from there.

(Ps: I was a little flexable in this approach at Fort Erie on Sunday, May 20th, Race 4.
The winner (PL5) had a 4-3-2 variation and odds of 36-1 at post time. It was a close enough match for me at that price. Exacta paid over 300.00 and Tri over 1400.00 just by putting the top 2 K horses along with it.)



Ron